Book Review: Jared Diamond's "Upheaval"

What can we learn from other countries in regards to how they have solved crises that seemed insurmountable in the moment? Historian and author Jared Diamond, known for works such as Guns, Germs, and Steel (1997) and Collapse (2004), looks at seven countries and how they have overcome--or somewhat overcame--major national problems in the past in his latest, Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis (2019), in order to glean insights into solving the problems of our present moment.

Borrowing from a psychological therapeutic framework used for helping individuals overcome crises, he applies this process analogously to the seven nation-states of Australia, Chile, Finland, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, and the United States. Underpinning nations' resiliency in moments of fast or slow-moving crises are twelve factors: recognition of a problem, accepting responsibility, the separation of problematic cultural/national values from useful ones, seeking help from allies, adopting of useful models from abroad, sense of national identity, honest self-appraisal, knowledge of past crises, ability to deal with failure, flexibility, core values, and degree of freedom from geopolitical constraints (Diamond, 2019, p. 50).

Of course, our seven countries have dealt, or are dealing with in the present, differing problems of a national scale with differing degrees of success. Some nations, like Chile and Indonesia dealt with primarily internal problems (coups and counter-coups in 1965 and 1973, respectively), while others were shocked by external forces to begin a process of national reckoning (Australia during WWII with the threat of Japanese invasion; Meiji-era Japan, forced into trade with the world in 1853 at gunpoint by US Commodore Perry; Finland by its partial invasion by the Soviet Union in 1939-1940).

What happened to these nations? Many of the more successful--or partially successful--nations, reached as much as a consensus as possible at a national level (countries are composed of many competing groups and individuals tied together by a national identity) that there was a crisis needing fixing, and figured out what national attributes worked for them and which did not, and adjusted accordingly, achieving what Diamond terms "selective change" (Diamond, 2019, p. 6):

• Australia built up its military defenses, aligned itself closer with Asia and the U.S. rather than their historical partner in the U.K. (itself more or less Europe-oriented now after the loss of the British Empire) in the recognition of both countries needing to act in their mutual interests. 
• Chile overcame right-wing coups against what it viewed to be an insurgent left-wing, economic uncertainty, and oppressive military dictatorship to achieve a mostly-balanced democratic government today, seeking to peacefully negotiate between the left and right.
• Finland adopted a new foreign policy that sought to instill trust between it and the Soviet Union (now Russia), and when invaded in 1939-1940 (the Winter War), got the Soviet Union to back down against overwhelming odds in a war of attrition, making any further Soviet gains incredibly costly in terms of personnel and materiel. 
• Germany overcame defeats in both WWI and WWII by confronting the painful legacy of Nazism and pragmatically reforming until the achievement of reunification in 1990.
• Indonesia threw off the Dutch colonial yoke, overcame disastrous coups and leadership blunders into unwarranted military invasions of its neighbors to forge a national identity and adapted Western economic tenets and a semi-democratic form of government (but corruption remains and the threat of a military coup still lingers, not to mention the legacy of a consciously unmentioned slaughter of communist and leftist-sympathizers in retaliation for the 1965 coup that targeted generals).
• Meiji-era Japan built up its economic, military, and political strength by borrowing heavily from Western ideas and institutions whose values most closely aligned with Japan's. 

So...what about the elephant in the room, the United States? Presently, the US is facing a toxic quagmire of political polarization, inequality, and concerted efforts at voter disenfranchisement (whether by tactics like gerrymandering, restrictive voter ID laws, etc.). Not surprisingly, the US has been somewhat sheltered from the realities of countries not lucky enough to be superpowers, believing in an American exceptionalism that does not lend itself to either geopolitical constraints and learning from other nations. Part of it is that we are blessed with geography (two oceans on either side that have mostly insulated us from invasion and extensive coastal port systems and internal waterways conducive to commerce), have a strong economy and military, and have a long history of democracy. We have gotten to where we have today with a uniquely American can-do attitude of problem-solving, flexibility, and innovation borne from the amalgamation of its diverse immigrant and descendants-of-immigrants population. After all, the reasoning goes, what more could we learn from other nations, if we have been among the most successful?

However, the US today faces a more interconnected world and global problems like climate change, potential nuclear war, ecological degradation, inequality, and more. Geography does not insulate some nations as much as it has in the past. National borders do not halt the spread of people, goods, ideas, or problems.

Ultimately, Diamond is neither an optimist or a pessimist when it comes to the question of if the U.S. can learn from others, face its problems, and step up to help solve more global issues. Mostly, that is because his individual psychological framework does not translate neatly over to national (i.e. group-involved) crises in all domains (like the assumption of a clear national consensus), and as a result, can't give clear-cut predictions or solutions either way. (In any case, I do applaud his interdisciplinary narrative style, showing intriguing connections between the psychology of leaders and nations and historical outcomes.)

Diamond concludes that it is up to Americans to not squander the considerable blessings we have in our favor, and to work constructively internationally to solve humanity's biggest challenges. He notes that America was able to make the leap of selective change in the past, discarding limiting isolationism post-WWII in favor of engagement with the world and reforming to chip away at various forms of discrimination.

Can we do this again? Nationally, and internationally? Stay tuned...


Works Cited:

Diamond, Jared. (2019). Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis. Little, Brown and Company: Little, Brown.

Book Review: Peter Frankopan's "The New Silk Roads"

There is no shortage of literature and media coverage out there about China's astonishing rise and the shift of economic and political gravity to the East. It was a staple of my undergraduate international relations curriculum, reviewing such works as Martin Jacques's When China Rules the World (2012)--imagining a scenario in which China has changed the rules of the game by virtue of being the new economic superpower of the world--to Charles Kupchan's No One's World (2012)--heralding a coming multipolar world in which the current powers of the West, especially the unipolar power many would argue the United States has been for most of the post-WWII era, must reconcile and power-share with the rising powers of the East, like China and India.

Peter Frankopan, professor of global history at Oxford, joined this debate with works like The Silk Roads: A New History of the World (2015) and continues this story in his latest, The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of the World (2018), reframing the conversation by showing the East and not the West has historically been the power-center of the world, perhaps explaining the latest power transition.

Reading more like an epilogue to The Silk Roads--or as a more updated edition to the latter--The New Silk Roads provides an Eastern perspective to events shaping geopolitics since its predecessor's 2015 publication, focusing on headlines showing China's increasing rapprochement with its neighbors in the "One Belt, One Road" initiative in contrast with the West's rising isolationism, inconsistent foreign policy, Trump, diplomatic brain drain, and Brexit problems (Frankopan, 2018, p. 17).

This ambitious economic and infrastructure development plan treads the old land and sea routes of the ancient Silk Roads connecting West-East, but also seeks to make new ones in areas like Africa and Latin America, the latest chapter in a larger discussion of the forces of globalization shaping the 21st century, but also the latest entry in the saga of the Great Games of history, calling to mind American and European imperial strategy in the 17th-20th centuries (Frankopan, 2015). In addition to ports, rail lines, oil pipelines, data sharing, and more, China is also building up military outposts to safeguard its investments and engaging in various bilateral trade talks with its neighbors.

Instead of the silk and spices of old, the eponymous New Silk Roads today are trade routes of people, ideas, natural resources (oil and mineral wealth), arms, data, and modern technology (AI, drones, missile defense systems, etc.). With the West going through the convulsions of Brexit and Trump, developing nations in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East (even some of the US's erstwhile allies in Europe and Australia) are viewing Beijing with increasing favor and as a potentially more reliable, stable alternative to Washington and London, with the capital to back up its ambitious vision for a prosperous and harmonious new world.

Notwithstanding the rivalries that will need to be dealt with--that of India and Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, Russia and China, to name a few--pragmatists of all parties have realized that a new strategy is needed to secure their prosperity and national security against the disguised flailing of the West--see the "controlled unpredictability" strategy of the U.S.-- and other threats, such as poverty and climate change (Frankopan, 2018, p. 127). It seems that the pressure applied by US sanctions on Iran and Russia and tariffs against China are doing more to push unlikely parties together to serve as bulwarks against Western influence, and China and friends are taking advantage of the gaps left by the political and economic flux of the West by cementing existing and new channels of engagement that circumvent established Western ones.

All in all, while critics may assail The New Silk Roads as being overly optimistic about the sustainability of China's and other Eastern diplomatic and infrastructure projects, Frankopan balances out the rosy visions of prosperity promised by the One Belt, One Road investments with an aside about the real issues standing in the way of realizing this vision and testing newfound alliances: China's debt load, some instances of predatory lending practices imposed on African nations in exchange for foreign investment, and the larger issues of climate change and environmental degradation, the migration crises, and the looming threat of automation in the public and private sectors. Not to mention many of the countries of the Silk Roads are not democratic by any means, discouraging dissent, controlling media, and limiting other human and political rights.

While the changes underway cannot be easily halted and the array of forces driving geopolitics are many and seemingly magnified, Frankopan concludes that along with the "fragilities and dangers" of our current moment, there are just as many opportunities for "cooperation and collaboration" on the part of the West with the East to aid a peaceful transition to the future (Frankopan, 2018, p. 194). Will we rise to the occasion?


Works Cited:

BBC News. (2019, May 10). A Quick Guide to the US-China Trade War. Retrieved May 12, 2019, from https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310.

Frankopan, Peter. (2018). The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of the World. London: Bloomsbury.

Frankopan, Peter. (2015). The Silk Roads: A New History of the World. New York: Vintage Books.

Jacques, Martin. (2012). When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. New York: Penguin Books.

Kupchan, Charles. A. (2012). No One’s World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn. Oxford: Oxford University Press.