From the title onwards, the Weinersmiths make it clear that the ten technologies they will be looking at do not have a concrete timeline for introduction to the wider market and world, nor do they have a crystal ball that shows with absolute certainty that these technologies will not have any downsides. However, that does not prove to be an insurmountable obstacle for a book that seems to follow a wider pattern of future prediction literature, but stands out by first explaining to the audience why (despite educated guesses by experts in many fields) technological development is hard to predict. Some technological advances aren't necessarily linear and require many different fields to develop in ways that provide the necessary pieces to advance those technologies. Moreover, all technologies can be used for good or for evil purposes and (more importantly) ultimate success in an era of globalization requires that a new product have a market (and necessarily makes itself as appealing as possible to a progressively wider pool of potential consumers). Lastly, not all overly optimistic predictions take into account the other technical, economic, social, or political variables that challenge the emergence of some technologies over others (i.e. all technology is the product of its time).
Now that we have gotten through all the helpful disclaimers provided in the book's introduction, we'll get to the predictions of the fields the authors see advancing in the coming years. {While I could get into detail about all the obstacles about each field, I chose to focus on the potential impacts these technologies would have on our way of life rather than the necessarily huge technical and economic challenges that would need to be overcome}. Now, without further ado, the ten fields highlighted in Soonish are:
- Space flight/access (frontier: space)
- Asteroid mining (frontier: space)
- Overcoming the huge cost barriers (i.e. fuel use, the use of a special type of metal for a space elevator or the development of asteroid harvesting technology) would mean that humanity could realize a space civilization like the type we see in the Star Wars or Star Trek sci-fi franchises, from space colonies and tourism to asteroid mining by being crafty about getting into space and staying there. Most likely, future space colonists would need fuel-saving and asteroid harvesting technologies in order to protect themselves from the harsh environment that is the vacuum and survive there. Therefore, conflicts over space law and between nations could emerge, as whoever first figures out how to get to and live most cheaply yet well in space has the bigger power advantage (despite the fact that current international space law says that no nation can make a sole claim on space).
- Fusion power (frontier: Earth and beyond)
- Fusion power: the ultimate solution for humanity's energy needs with minimal environmental impacts (but significant maintenance, like any other power plants). Energy is the ultimate currency. Here then, overcoming the scale problems of fusion reactors would mean that humanity would have access to cleaner and more unlimited energy that would then power new technologies (space ship engines anyone?) and economies without emitting the pollutants driving dangerous climate change.
- Programmable matter (frontier: Earth)
- Robotic construction (frontier: Earth)
- As for programmable matter and robotic construction, these fields to me have the most implications for the reduction of worldwide poverty by providing access to cheaper or more versatile materials that can go towards things like affordable (yet open to personalization) housing. This might change the geopolitical balance by making it easier for poorer countries to literally build a foundation for future prosperity and growth. It might also make refugee situations easier by providing housing and sanitation lacking in such turbulent times. Additionally, getting past changes in housing and consumer protection laws, new architectural wonders are possible using anything from swarm robotics to 3D printing.
- Augmented reality (frontier: Earth and beyond?)
- Notwithstanding enormous privacy issues that would need to be addressed with these technologies, augmented reality (AR) has the potential to revolutionize everything from art to entertainment to education and job-training/aids. In terms of education and job-related applications, augmented reality could help teach more abstract concepts in accessible ways to helping workers more accurately and efficiently train (by providing visual guides) and retain information relating to complex procedures (such as surgery in both clinical and emergency settings). Essentially, AR has the potential to acquire more complex skills in less time and could be a huge economic boost.
- Synthetic biology (frontier: Earth)
- Precision medicine (frontier: Earth)
- Bioprinting (frontier: Earth)
- These above fields at the intersection of biology, big data and medicine give us things like genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) and progressively cheaper gene sequencing and targeted treatments. Further developments in this technology and safety can save medical companies, medical professionals and patients both time and money from the drug development to treatment stages (although concerns remain about the accessibility to on-demand organ replacements and gene therapies to less socioeconomically well-off populations).
- Brain-computer interfaces (frontier: Earth)
- This was the field with the creepiest implications for me. If we could figure out all the health, privacy, social and economic obstacles related to such technologies (such as being subject to a computer given the discretion to make its own decisions), there are huge possibilities in terms of communication between large groups of people (think a hive-mind-like set-up) and in the treatment of mental and physical diseases (from depression to Alzheimer's).
Works Cited:
Weinersmith, Kelly, & Weiner, Zach. (2017). Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything. New York: Penguin Press.
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