Book Review: Martin Jacque's "When China Rules the World"

Coming on the heels of the United States withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accords, many scholars and prominent figures in politics and journalism saw this as just another sign of the decline of the West (at the very least, another abdication of global leadership by the United States in favor of rising nation-states like China). Many drew this conclusion coming off of the news breaking not long after President Trump would withdraw the United States from the Accords, which his administration viewed as unduly limiting economic development, that China would assume de facto leadership of the global fight against climate change. This all is part of a larger discussion concerning the future of the international order and whether developing countries like China and India, the latter looking more economically dynamic coming off of the 2006-2008 financial crisis, will become the new great powers in the international system. Martin Jacques, in his 2012 book When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, makes a similar case in which he sees China likely to overtake the West as the preeminent power of the international system within half a century.

Like Charles Kupchan in No One's World, Jacques sees the coming of a global order that, if not dominated by China will at least be heavily influenced by many new power centers of the East and the developing world, such as India, based upon various statistics illustrating the growth of these economies in comparison to those of the West. This rising economic power is the critical ingredient to a projected future power because nation-states like the United States have translated economic power into the development of both soft power (diplomatic) and hard power (military) mechanisms in order to better shape and maintain the international order that the super-power ultimately relies upon to maintain this power. Also not unlike Kupchan, Jacques broadly highlights broad historical trends and recent developments which portend the peaking and ultimate decline of Western hegemony, in which the process of globalization has bound the world closer together, having boosted the developing world but hurting established economic sectors in the West, such as manufacturing, through increased competition. This decline in economic power ultimately has allowed developing countries like China to push for membership in and reform of major international institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) as developed countries like the United States gradually give ground mainly due to economic stagnation that has reduced the resources available to maintain Western hegemony (such as resources that go towards maintaining overseas military bases). 

However, unlike other books focusing on the coming transition in the international system which have largely treated the China question superficially, Jacques situates these broad trends within a larger historical view of China itself, going in depth about early Chinese civilization and how it would affect how it might behave as a global power. To sum up a very lengthy argument towards this end, Jacques sees China behaving both like and unlike the great powers of the past, with China acquiring and maintaining its power mostly through economic dynamism (see above) like other powers. While China is likely to acquire its status through similar means (and already seems to be doing so presently), Jacques would argue that Chinese culture and history should not be discounted in trying to predict China's future behavior. Moreover, he sees Chinese ascendancy as returning a form of what Jacques terms the "tributary state system" in which other nations acknowledge the superiority of Chinese civilization and maintain a beneficial relationship with it (almost in a sense of being informal satellite states of China) in return for considerable autonomy (unlike the Western version of colonialism). Jacques sees this primarily within Asia in the formation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and their almost European Union-like economic and political integration, but allows that this neo-tributary state system could become a global phenomenon if China becomes the sole power of the international system, especially in Africa where considerable Chinese investment and settlement has taken place. 

Overall, I thought that Jacques presents a sound argument based upon solid evidence concerning the big message of the book that the West needs to learn from the rising powers in the East as much as the East has learned from the West if the international system is allowed to reconfigure itself peacefully (i.e. without a military conflict between China and the United States). This reconfiguration of the international system will be something to watch going forward as the developing world continues to modernize rapidly. Lastly, as this book is somewhat outdated (having been published in 2012), it would be interesting to see a more timely update on China (and India) in light of recent events (the Paris Accords, the increasingly tense South China Sea conflict, etc.) showing the developing world increasingly asserting itself on the global stage the West has largely dominated for the past two centuries. Notwithstanding the latter points and the lengthiness of the book, Jacques presents an intriguing narrative that I think is especially instructive for not only international relations scholars, but for anyone that is curious about China as the China question continues to be more and more salient.

Sources Cited:

Jacques, M. (2012). When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. New York: Penguin Books.