While no one can see the future, many people (whether scholars or not) have tried to predict it by examining today's trends and extrapolating them into the future. Therefore, Yuval Noah Harari is continuing this scholarly tradition in his latest book Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow (a sequel to Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind), while still managing to stand out. Why does this book stand out among the rest? Harari's book takes a multidisciplinary yet very accessible look at today's world in order to make his case about the three major developments he sees humanity most likely following in the 21st century: striving towards immortality, ultimate happiness, and the creation of enhanced (and potentially artificial) life (which starts with humans merging with machines while creating artificial intelligence).
However, to better understand Harari's bold predictions about the future, we have to understand the context. To do this, Harari reviews key concepts from his previous book Sapiens to give a brief overview of how humanity has claimed dominance on planet Earth. As Harari notes, "in the last few decades we have managed to rein in famine, plague and war" (Harari, 2017, p. 1). Undergirding this astounding rise of civilization are key ideas, concepts, and narratives that Harari pointed out helped to cement cooperation between larger and larger groups of people, including humanism, scientific inquiry, and religion. What all of these latter ideas have in common is that they are convenient narratives that have given humanity the excuse and justification for their dominion over Earth and their centrality to the universe. Firstly, humanism puts the focus on an individual (a human individual) and their unique experiences and feelings. Humanism brings us the popular (and familiar) ideas of liberty, free will, and a license to pursue one's happiness however they wish (as long as it doesn't hurt others). Secondly, the development of science as we know it today with the Scientific Revolution enabled humans to explore an expanding world and universe (from first the planet to sending probes and telescopes into space), expand humanity's knowledge of said universe, and develop new technologies and ways of living. Thirdly, the emergence of mono or poly-theistic religions like Christianity and Hinduism (to name a few) supplanted hunter-gatherer systems of belief like animism that attributed all life as having equal value and importance in the story of the universe.
Where does humanity go from here? Towards immortality, happiness, and the achievement of god-like status. Harari expands on these predictions in the last two sections of the book, and gives a disclaimer that the book is not necessarily a prophecy (more like an educated, provocative guess) and that the achievement of his future depends on humanity still cooperating on an international level and not fractured by all-consuming war, disease, and ecological catastrophe. Yet, the consequences that Harari outlines as probably resulting from astronomic advances in biotechnology, computer science, and artificial intelligence seem exactly like the conditions that would undermine the progress of human civilization. The potential emergence of a class of super-humans (those enhanced by biotechnology or merged with machines and also those who develop increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligences/algorithms, also known as Homo Deus) and an accompanying class of "economically useless" humans (read: un-enhanced humans or those not at the top of the technocratic ladder) would seem to deepen the present day issues of income inequality, discrimination, and the dangerous accumulation of power towards those at the social, political, and economic elite (Harari, 2017, p. 309).
That's not it though. The new developments (and accompanying techno-religions Harari sees as becoming in-vogue with the new superhuman elite based on the unity of science with Big Data) also raise troubling questions about the future of democratic government, human rights, and many other international programs. Harari admits that these new superhuman elites (or perhaps eventually, inorganic life-forms) emerge because of the great expense of these new biotechnologies and advances in artificial intelligence, meaning that the rich are most likely to have access to near-immortality and divinity (and are not going to have incentives to share the benefits with the masses, even taking into account the delay in new technologies eventually trickling down from the elites to the masses). Is this a future that humanity wishes to have (if this does come to pass)? Can the cooperation between large groups of people achieved so far largely underneath the banner of democracy, capitalism and liberalism that have managed to vault humanity to preeminence be sustained in the face of present-day obstacles and forces that Harari's envisioned future would magnify tenfold? Can civilization sustain itself without mass cooperation?
Harari partially addresses these latter concerns by countering that humanity is likely to subsume itself in virtual reality (at least, within the larger virtual community already in place, bonded together by computers, telecommunications, and the Internet), especially those new economically expendable people (i.e. the masses). I feel that this is the most plausible out of all of Harari's predictions (aside from continuing divides between the elite and the masses), as people increasingly plug-in to the Internet via mobile phones, tablets, and computers (and grant giant technology corporations like Google and Apple unprecedented access to personal data). That seems to be the current trend with technology today, that humanity comes to have more value (or see itself as having more value) as a collective rather than as a collection of individuals.
Overall, Homo Deus presents a unique dystopian vision of humanity's future in the 21st century, one that utilizes a multidisciplinary approach to challenge readers' preconceptions and make them uncomfortable. However, despite my simultaneous discomfort and enjoyment of the book (and my misgivings at some of the predictions presented within it), Harari nevertheless provided me with a new point of view on the megatrends of the present and their potential future consequences. Also, what made this book both provocative and yet so successful is that the book simultaneously answered many questions and raised many, many more (allowing readers to engage in critical thinking and to come to their own conclusions). I would recommend that everyone read this book, from the merely curious everyday person to policymakers involved in making social, political, and economic decisions at the top levels, as it asks critical questions about the kind of future we want to have as a society.
Works Cited:
Harari, Yuval Noah. (2017). Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. New York: HarperCollins.
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